By Bulls Eye
2013….
Is it good or bad?
21/12/2012,
a day which the Mayans predicted that it is the end of the world…. Some took it
as a joke; some took it seriously, stacking up as much supplies as possible (as
if you need it if it is the end of the world… haha). In a very reasonable way
to analyze this, my personal conclusion would be…. If the Mayans were able to
do prediction, then Mayans should still exist in this world.
Its
okay, if “doomsday” is NOT going to
be tomorrow or sometime in the near
future, then the next big thing would be... how would next year be like? Would
there be a crash in the market? Would they set a new high in the market? Would
it be a prosperous or bloomy 2013?
Do
allow me to clarify that I am making analysis based on Malaysian market as I am
involved in this industry in Malaysia for more than 20 years. My analysis would
base on my personal opinions and it is up to your judgment on whether my
analysis would adhere to the outcome for the upcoming year.
I am
a person who fails in writing articles; as such I would like to apologize in
advance for not writing a complete article that is in common with those “Market Gurus”. I’ll go straight to the
point, without too much of flourishing words to ensure readers are attracted to
my topic; I would list down those main concerns and I will answer it briefly
with simple elaboration:
How will the market be (In general) for 2013?
In my
humble opinion, next year is indeed a very challenging year, as I think next
year the market would be very volatile, it can be extremely bullish or bearish
throughout the year. The reason I said this is because our market would be greatly
affected by international issues such as US economy downturn, Europe Financial
Crisis; Apart from this, our market also would be driven by issues in Malaysia
such as the upcoming General Elections. With the historical data from the last
general election for the year 2008, we can foresee that our KLSE index has a
higher chance of having a big retracement as people are uncertain of the
outcome of the general election. Should the current government retain its
power, we could see a very stable recovery for KLSE index but I feel that the
possibility of setting a new record high for the market would be very low.
Should the opposition take over the power of the central government, the market
perhaps would emerge into a very much volatile situation and it would be
greatly affected by the “smoothness” of the transition of power from the
current government to the new ones. Nevertheless, if we talk about long term,
there is a high possibility that we may break new highs with the condition that
the new government knows what to do to ensure a speedy recovery for our market.
Will the upcoming Malaysia’s
General Election be a tumble stone or a stepping stone for the market?
In my
humble opinion, I repeat… it is my humble opinion, regardless of who is in the
power after the general election, I hope & I wish that they (the new
government) would be more “opened” and “fair” to everyone in the society and
thus attract more FDI’s in the near future. With this, a better future for
everyone would seem to be a reality rather than a dream.
Will KLCI break new high for
2013?
It
all boils down to the same issue… would the government set a fair playing
ground for Malaysians & foreign investors? With this, we can “package
& market” Malaysia as one of their attractive option to invest? We
have the geometrical & stability advantage which is supposed to be a
“hotspot” for investment but our country’s policy currently seems to be
unattractive for them. So if we want to set a new high? Revamp the policy to
suit the majority.
Should investors hold on to
their shares as at right now?
As we
all know, year end is always the time where major fund managers would actually
perform window dressing which might or may provide good results for this month
(December). But bear in mind, general election is just round the corner, at
this period of time, majority of investors or market players would actually be
“on the fence” and our market may not look as active as usual. As such, in my
humble opinion, should you have stocks which are giving you profit, you may
have the option to let it go.
What do you think about US
markets for 2013? Will it affect Malaysia?
Let
us have a short flashback; the United States of America has just ended their
presidential election. What the Obama’s administration needs to do is to try to
save their economy, while playing the balancing act between the rich and the
poor. This is not an easy task, and it would take some time for them to curb
their problems. This also applies to the problems in Europe, as we can see, both
the US and Europe has the least potential to set new highs for their indices.
As such, for a country such as Malaysia, we would definitely be affected by
their (US & Europe) slow progress; it is just a matter whether it would
affect greatly or little.
What do you suggest to
investors who wish to buy shares for next year?
At
this current moment, I would suggest NOT to participate in share trading first
until the general election ends. As anything would happen because we wouldn’t
know who will take over the office in Putrajaya, I will from time to time
observe and would post all necessary info or opinions when the time comes. Stay
tuned to InvestACE.blogspot.com for more updates and info.
Disclaimer:
The information and analysis mentioned above are solely based on Invest ACE’s
personal technical analysis with the aid of professional training, decades of
experience and meticulous foresight; Invest ACE shall NOT be held liable for
any losses (financially or otherwise) incurred by any parties relying on aforementioned
analysis without prior professional consultation. Should you wish to find out
more on how to invest wisely, do not hesitate to contact Invest ACE via
investace126@gmail.com.