Shares and Equities

By Bulls Eye

2013…. Is it good or bad?

21/12/2012, a day which the Mayans predicted that it is the end of the world…. Some took it as a joke; some took it seriously, stacking up as much supplies as possible (as if you need it if it is the end of the world… haha). In a very reasonable way to analyze this, my personal conclusion would be…. If the Mayans were able to do prediction, then Mayans should still exist in this world.

Its okay, if “doomsday” is NOT going to be tomorrow or sometime in the near future, then the next big thing would be... how would next year be like? Would there be a crash in the market? Would they set a new high in the market? Would it be a prosperous or bloomy 2013?

Do allow me to clarify that I am making analysis based on Malaysian market as I am involved in this industry in Malaysia for more than 20 years. My analysis would base on my personal opinions and it is up to your judgment on whether my analysis would adhere to the outcome for the upcoming year.

I am a person who fails in writing articles; as such I would like to apologize in advance for not writing a complete article that is in common with those “Market Gurus”. I’ll go straight to the point, without too much of flourishing words to ensure readers are attracted to my topic; I would list down those main concerns and I will answer it briefly with simple elaboration:

How will the market  be (In general) for 2013?

In my humble opinion, next year is indeed a very challenging year, as I think next year the market would be very volatile, it can be extremely bullish or bearish throughout the year. The reason I said this is because our market would be greatly affected by international issues such as US economy downturn, Europe Financial Crisis; Apart from this, our market also would be driven by issues in Malaysia such as the upcoming General Elections. With the historical data from the last general election for the year 2008, we can foresee that our KLSE index has a higher chance of having a big retracement as people are uncertain of the outcome of the general election. Should the current government retain its power, we could see a very stable recovery for KLSE index but I feel that the possibility of setting a new record high for the market would be very low. Should the opposition take over the power of the central government, the market perhaps would emerge into a very much volatile situation and it would be greatly affected by the “smoothness” of the transition of power from the current government to the new ones. Nevertheless, if we talk about long term, there is a high possibility that we may break new highs with the condition that the new government knows what to do to ensure a speedy recovery for our market.

Will the upcoming Malaysia’s General Election be a tumble stone or a stepping stone for the market?

In my humble opinion, I repeat… it is my humble opinion, regardless of who is in the power after the general election, I hope & I wish that they (the new government) would be more “opened” and “fair” to everyone in the society and thus attract more FDI’s in the near future. With this, a better future for everyone would seem to be a reality rather than a dream.

Will KLCI break new high for 2013?

It all boils down to the same issue… would the government set a fair playing ground for Malaysians & foreign investors? With this, we can “package & market” Malaysia as one of their attractive option to invest? We have the geometrical & stability advantage which is supposed to be a “hotspot” for investment but our country’s policy currently seems to be unattractive for them. So if we want to set a new high? Revamp the policy to suit the majority.

Should investors hold on to their shares as at right now?

As we all know, year end is always the time where major fund managers would actually perform window dressing which might or may provide good results for this month (December). But bear in mind, general election is just round the corner, at this period of time, majority of investors or market players would actually be “on the fence” and our market may not look as active as usual. As such, in my humble opinion, should you have stocks which are giving you profit, you may have the option to let it go.

What do you think about US markets for 2013? Will it affect Malaysia?

Let us have a short flashback; the United States of America has just ended their presidential election. What the Obama’s administration needs to do is to try to save their economy, while playing the balancing act between the rich and the poor. This is not an easy task, and it would take some time for them to curb their problems. This also applies to the problems in Europe, as we can see, both the US and Europe has the least potential to set new highs for their indices. As such, for a country such as Malaysia, we would definitely be affected by their (US & Europe) slow progress; it is just a matter whether it would affect greatly or little.

What do you suggest to investors who wish to buy shares for next year?

At this current moment, I would suggest NOT to participate in share trading first until the general election ends. As anything would happen because we wouldn’t know who will take over the office in Putrajaya, I will from time to time observe and would post all necessary info or opinions when the time comes. Stay tuned to InvestACE.blogspot.com for more updates and info.

  

Disclaimer: The information and analysis mentioned above are solely based on Invest ACE’s personal technical analysis with the aid of professional training, decades of experience and meticulous foresight; Invest ACE shall NOT be held liable for any losses (financially or otherwise) incurred by any parties relying on aforementioned analysis without prior professional consultation. Should you wish to find out more on how to invest wisely, do not hesitate to contact Invest ACE via investace126@gmail.com.